PREDICTING THE IMPACTS OF TOURISM DEVELOPMENT ON LAND USE DYNAMICS IN MALINO, GOWA REGENCY: PRIORITY ZONING STRATEGY BASED ON SPATIAL CONFLICTS, SWOT, AND AHP ANALYSIS

Abstract

Tourism expansion in environmentally sensitive regions, such as Malino in Gowa Regency, Indonesia, has intensified over the last ten years, generating economic benefits while simultaneously increasing land use conflicts and governance challenges. Rapid, often unregulated spatial development has converted forests, agricultural lands, and conservation zones into settlements and tourism infrastructure, frequently diverging from the regional spatial plans (RTRW). To forecast future land use changes and support sustainable tourism-oriented planning, this research employed Markov Chain and Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) modelling to simulate land use scenarios for 2034 and 2044, using data from 2015 to 2024. The findings indicate a persistent reduction in forest cover alongside the growth of settlements and dryland agriculture, particularly concentrated along primary access routes and tourism clusters. Analysis of transition probability matrices highlighted prevailing land conversion trends, whereas CA–Markov simulations incorporated key drivers (settlements and road networks) and constraints (protected forests, slope, and water bodies) to improve spatial realism. Projections suggest that around 19% of land within protected zones is vulnerable to utilisation inconsistent with zoning regulations, reflecting ongoing spatial conflicts. Overlay and conflict mapping highlight governance challenges, including overlapping institutional mandates, weak enforcement, and limited community participation, revealing a gap between planning and implementation. To address these issues, this study integrates SWOT analysis with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to prioritise zoning strategies. A total of twenty strategic alternatives were evaluated, with strict land-use control to prevent illegal conversion identified as the highest priority, followed by eco-tourism development based on landscape potential, participatory zoning control, and climate-adaptive spatial planning. This study proposes a replicable framework that integrates spatial forecasting, conflict analysis, and multi-criteria decision-making to support adaptive, participatory, and sustainability-oriented land-use governance in highland protected tourism areas.